Box Office Predictions – Weekend of Jan 20

Hello, readers – it’s once again time to play the weekly box office predictions game. Apologies for my unannounced absence last Thursday – a run-in with what I can only presume to be some of the worst food-poisoning man has ever experienced left me bedridden for nearly five days. But I’m back, baby, and ready to haphazardly throw around numbers as usual.

The interesting thing about this weekend’s three openers is that they all cater to the same blanket demographic: males ages 16-35. The George Lucas-produced Red Tails skews more all-ages than Underworld: Awakening and Haywire—both of which are rated R—but it nonetheless shares that core constituency. That’s a lot of competition for one audience, and it could result in any one of a dozen-plus possible outcomes.

The obvious pick for the #1 slot is Underworld: Awakening, the fourth film in the popular vampires vs. lycans franchise. It marks the first 3-D installment and brings back star Kate Beckinsale, who wasn’t around for the third film. Beckinsale’s return is a good sign for box office in general, but if I worked at Screen Gems, I would be concerned that the series already lost a substantial number of viewers that it won’t get back… The third film opened lower than its predecessors and was not as well-liked (earning a merely proficient “B+” CinemaScore). Just because Beckinsale is back, will many people who skipped out on #3 or didn’t like #3 really return for material that now feels old? I’m skeptical about that prospect, so I will predict that Underworld: Awakening performs even with #3, plus a 15% bump for 3-D surcharges. That would give it an opening weekend of $24 million.

However, if Underworld: Awakening underperforms, Red Tails could very well eke out a come-from-behind box office victory. As I said above, it’s the most audience-inclusive – from 10-year-old boys to those who lived through World War II, the period in which it takes place. In addition, the movie’s marketing campaign has been effectively tapping the African-American audience, which, as we’ve seen in recent years, can produce huge box office revenues. And lastly, producer Lucas has been unusually visible lately – his appearance on The Daily Show, in which he discussed the film as his passion project, went viral. That should be enough to get at least a couple hundred-thousand Star Wars fan-boys to turn up who wouldn’t have otherwise. I’m predicting these factors propel Red Tails to a solid $19 million opening.

If you want to see a truly rousing action film, however, you’re much better off catching Steven Soderbergh’s Haywire, starring MMA-fighter Gina Carano. Unfortunately, it’s almost certain to place last among the three openers. The best case scenario would be an opening similar to Hanna, the teenage assassin film that Focus launched to $12.4 million last year. But they were able to make Hanna look more sophisticated and palatable to older audiences in the advertising, whereas Haywire has been sold squarely to the younger, hipper, edgier set. Then there’s the aforementioned competition factor. I’m hoping against hope that Haywire finds itself a sizable audience—it certainly deserves one—but the rational analyst in me must predict a gloomy $7.5 million.

There are also two smaller films expanding into wide release: the 9/11-themed drama Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, starring Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock, and the Oscar-favorite The Artist. I loathed the former film, but the source material has a strong following and Warner Brothers has been blitzing the airwaves with ads to try to save face in light of a rather anemic LA/NY-exclusive run. It should be able to conjure up $10.5 million. The latter film will continue to be a tough sell because it’s in black-and-white and is silent, but word-of-mouth is building and Joe Schmoes are taking a chance on it. I don’t think $3 million from 662 theaters is out of the question at all.

My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:

1. Underworld: Awakening … $24.0m ($7,797 PTA)
2. Red Tails … $19.0m ($7,564 PTA)
3. Contraband … $14.6m ($5,087 PTA) -40.0%
4. Beauty and the Beast 3-D … $10.7m ($4,076 PTA) -39.7%
5. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close … $10.5m ($3,992 PTA) +11,534%
6. Haywire … $7.5m ($3,075 PTA)
7. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol … $7.0m ($2,779 PTA) -40.1%
8. Joyful Noise … $5.8m ($2,121 PTA) -48.3%
9. Sherlock Holmes … $4.4m ($1,771 PTA) -48.8%
10. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo … $4.0m ($2,098 PTA) -39.9%

**  The Artist … $3.0m ($4,532 PTA) +251%