Oscar Picks & Predictions

The 77th Annual Academy Awards

For the first year ever, I woke up at 5AM and watched the Oscar nomination ceremony take place. For any movie-lover, doing so is an exciting experience, even when the films are from 2004, one of the most abominable years in the history of cinema. Still, there isn’t much room to complain about this year’s nominees, even though I am very bitter about GARDEN STATE and HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS not receiving the recognition that they deserve. I knew that THE GIRL NEXT DOOR and BEFORE SUNSET didn’t even have chances in any of the major categories, so it was hard to be disappointed about their lack of nominations. Even without THE LORD OF THE RINGS, I found this year’s winners fairly easy to guess at. In late February, we shall see if my predictions prove to be realities. All of the talk is over. Let the real Oscar race begin.

My Picks Listed in Bold.

My Predictions are Highlighted.

BEST PICTURE

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS

Comments: Now that Scorsese has finally made a new movie that is almost universally liked, the Academy will probably give THE AVIATOR the win. Word on the street is that MILLION DOLLAR BABY has a chance, though, and I hope so. It’s my personal pick, by far. I wouldn’t rule FINDING NEVERLAND just yet, though, as it was the early favorite in the race.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx - RAY

Comments: Jamie Foxx will win and there isn’t any doubt about it. The only way I’d be happier was if the Oscar went to Don Cheadle, who, at the end of the day, put on a performance that affected me more than any, this year. Too bad old Leo is competing with two Gods; he’d win if THE AVIATOR was released in any other year.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

Comments: If there is any justice in the world, Hilary Swank will win the award. Annette Bening may beat her to it, unfortunately, seeing as Swank won just a few years ago for BOYS DON’T CRY. Winslet would be a great pick, but her work will prove too offbeat for the Academy. Moreno wasn’t good enough in MARIA FULL OF GRACE to have a shot. However, with VERA DRAKE being re-released this weekend, I wouldn’t rule out Imelda Staunton just yet.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen – CLOSER

Comments: Jamie Foxx will instantly be ruled out because a) COLLATERAL isn’t an award-friendly movie and b) he will win later in the night for RAY. Clive Owen seems to be the favorite, but seeing as Patrick Marber’s screenplay isn’t nominated, I think the Academy might be on the same wavelength as me, in thinking that the unfitting dialogue ruined the great performances in CLOSER. That leaves us with a Morgan Freeman win, which will be much deserved.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman - CLOSER

Comments: Cate Blanchett was amazing in THE AVIATOR, and she deserves the award. Natalie Portman could’ve had a shot, right along with Clive Owen, if CLOSER didn’t turn out to be the ultimate and unfortunate failure that it was. Sophie Okonedo was good, but has no chance at winning. Virginia Madsen was too subtle in SIDEWAYS to be honored. Laura Linney won’t win for the same reason Liam Neeson wasn’t nominated: KINSEY’s subject matter.

DIRECTING

THE AVIATOR
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE

Comments: As much as I hated some of the tedious aspects of his work in THE AVIATOR, Scorsese deserves to win. Not a single award from the Academy sits on his shelf, and that’s a damn shame. They want to give him the inspiration to keep making movies, though, so I think the also-deserving winner will be Clint Eastwood. Mike Leigh is a dark-horse for VERA DRAKE.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

THE INCREDIBLES
SHARK TALE
SHREK 2

Comments: Even though SHREK 2 had the largest ad-campaign and was seen by the highest number of people, Pixar always seems to walk away with the award and, this time, they will do so, rightfully. SHARK TALE would be a deserving candidate if the category was based on the quality of the animation alone, but the fact that it wasn’t a good movie crosses it out of the race.

ART DIRECTION

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

Comments: THE AVIATOR will sweep in the technical categories. The other two big budget movies in this category, LEMONY SNICKET and A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT, are not awards-friendly. PHANTOM was terrible and FINDING NEVERLAND was too small a movie to win.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

THE AVIATOR
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

Comments: Continuing with THE AVIATOR’s technical sweep will be this award. THE PASSION is the rightful winner, though, especially considering the rather low thirty-million-dollar budget it had to work with. It would also be wrong of me not to mention HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS here, too, seeing as it is the only great movie to be nominated in this category.

COSTUME DESIGN

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
RAY
TROY

Comments: RAY deserves to win, seeing as the costumes helped re-invent the time periods it chronicled. LEMONY SNICKET is also a good candidate for my pick. However, FINDING NEVERLAND will take home the Oscar, simply because of its elegant imagination, which showed through in the costuming.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

BORN INTO BROTHELS
THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL
SUPER SIZE ME
TUPAC: RESURRECTION
TWIST OF FAITH

Comments: I am still kicking myself for missing BORN INTO BROTHELS at the San Diego Film Festival, last September. I am forced to choose between the two that I have seen, here, SUPER SIZE ME and THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL. Both were mediocre, in my eyes, but the former rules out. Neither are really documentaries, but they’re nominated because they have real-life footage in them. Where is TOUCHING THE VOID, Academy? My indifference is showing.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS

Comments: SIDEWAYS has been the screenwriting-favorite since day-one, and is a shoe-in to win, unless the commie-likes of Che Guevara persuade all of the liberal voters to fill in the bubble for THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES on their ballots, which is unlikely. Still, I have no doubt that BEFORE SUNSET was the best-written film of 2004.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

THE AVIATOR
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE

Comments: Chalie Kaufman’s creative ADAPTATION won this Oscar two years ago, and the guy will do it again, goddamnit! There’s no competition here, as all of the other movies’ screenplays that are nominated would have trouble standing on their own, without their brilliant executions, on film.

FILM EDITING

THE AVIATOR
COLLATERAL
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY

Comments: In truth, Michael Mann’s film is the only one in this bunch that is really all that lean and mean. It should win, but, again, THE AVIATOR will sweep the technical categories. I think MILLION DOLLAR BABY has a chance. That is, if the Academy appreciates its beautifully slow pacing.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – (No Pick)

AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
THE CHORUS
DOWNFALL
THE SEA INSIDE
YESTERDAY

Comments: I was hoping to have seen at least one of these, and I probably will, sometime in the next few weeks. However, I have no doubt that the award will go to THE SEA INSIDE. I hear it’s an amazing film, and the fact that it’s about euthanasia is bound to win over the Academy.

MAKEUP

LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE SEA INSIDE

Comments: LEMONY SNICKET won’t win ‘cuz it’s a kids’ movie and PASSION won’t win ‘cuz it’s a religious movie (although, anyone who can make Monica Belluci look so rough is a genius of a makeup artist). Again, I haven’t seen THE SEA INSIDE, but it seems as though it will win over the other two, because of the obvious bias involved in selection.

MUSIC (SCORE)

FINDING NEVERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE VILLAGE

Comments: Here is one of the few awards that FINDING NEVERLAND might actually take home, and I'm rooting for it. The score gave me goose-bumps, even when I was only watching the trailer. Of course, in the technical category that THE AVIATOR deserves to win in, it’s not nominated. John Williams has a good shot for HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN, but it seems to me that that his score is almost the same as those of the first two films in the franchise. I wouldn’t really be bothered by any of the nominees taking home the golden statue, here, though. Also: where is FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS?

MUSIC (SONG)

"Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
"Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS
"Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - THE CHORUS

Comments: Forget about the winner for a second and think about the fact that all of these songs will be performed on stage, during the award-show. Two will be in foreign languages, one is a part of an opera, one is a pop-song, and the other is a Christmas song. I’m betting on the pop song to win, just because it’s the only one that ever aired on the radio. I would like “Al Otro Lado Del Rio” to win, because, for some reason, it reminds me of “Burn it Blue,” Elliot Goldenthal’s song from FRIDA, which was robbed of a win by none other but Eminem, two years ago.

SOUND EDITING

THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
SPIDER-MAN 2

Comments: All three are triumphs of sound, but if forced to choose, I’d have to go with THE POLAR EXPRESS. The Academy is sure to pick SPIDER-MAN 2, though.

SOUND MIXING

THE AVIATOR
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
RAY
SPIDER-MAN 2

Comments: Where the hell are SECRET WINDOW and HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS?

VISUAL EFFECTS

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT
SPIDER-MAN 2

Comments: Any other choice would be a crime, even if the other two nominees do look great.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

BIRTHDAY BOY
GOPHER BROKE
GUARD DOG
LORENZO
RYAN

Comments: Now that I've seen something in the category, I'm changing my vote. RYAN is one helluva strange short; I'm not sure if I like it or not, yet. I would say GOPHER BROKE, but The Academy don't seem to like kiddy shorts, for some reason.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
LITTLE TERRORIST
7:35 IN THE MORNING
TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
WASP

Comments: It's the only movie I've seen in the category, yes, but, it's really, really clever, and deserving of a win.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT – (No Pick)

AUTISM IS A WORLD
THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
HARDWOOD
MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH
SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

Comments: Your guess is as good as mine.

Posted: 2.5.2004

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